New Texas polling shows Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 47%, but the race remains closely contested. As Election Day approaches, what do the candidates stand for, and what matters most to Katy voters?
KATY, TEXAS — October 14, 2026
Texas voters are approaching one of the state’s most closely watched U.S. Senate elections in decades. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, released October 13, shows Talarico receiving 50% support compared with Paxton’s 47%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown received 1%, while 2% selected another candidate.
The survey, conducted September 25 through October 5 among 861 likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.34 percentage points. That means the three-point difference is within the survey’s margin of error and does not establish a definitive leader.
Another recent survey illustrates the uncertainty. Quantus Insights, polling October 9–11, found Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, effectively a statistical tie.
The statewide numbers have attracted attention because Democrats have not won a statewide Texas election since 1994. However, these are statewide surveys, not polls conducted specifically among Katy voters.
As both campaigns present competing approaches to the economy, immigration, education and health care, residents have an opportunity to examine the differences before casting their ballots.
Meet the Candidates
James Talarico — Democratic Party
James Talarico is a Texas state representative from the Austin area and a former public school teacher. He has served four terms in the Texas House, where education, health care and economic issues have been central to his legislative work.
Talarico’s Senate campaign emphasizes reducing costs for working families, increasing educational investment, expanding health care affordability and changing federal tax policies affecting wealthy individuals and large corporations.
He has also advocated comprehensive immigration reform, including stronger border security alongside expanded legal immigration opportunities.
Ken Paxton — Republican Party
Ken Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015. Before assuming that office, he represented the McKinney area in the Texas House and Texas Senate.
During his tenure as attorney general, Paxton has pursued legal challenges involving federal immigration policies, environmental regulations, health care and other constitutional disputes.
His Senate campaign emphasizes border enforcement, tax reductions, support for American energy production, conservative social policies and alignment with President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda.
Paxton has also called for reducing federal spending and expanding domestic manufacturing.
Where Do the Candidates Stand on Major Issues?
1. Economy, taxes and the cost of living
Both candidates identify affordability as a major concern, but propose different economic approaches.
Talarico: Supports expanding child and earned income tax credits, raising taxes on high-income individuals and large corporations, increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and addressing housing, insurance and prescription drug costs. He also supports repealing tariffs that he argues increase consumer prices.
Paxton: Supports additional tax deductions for expenses such as housing and health care, reducing federal spending, lowering taxes and rolling back regulations affecting businesses and energy production. He argues that tax relief and economic growth can help families retain more of their earnings.
The policy difference centers partly on taxation, federal spending and the government’s role in addressing consumer costs.
2. Immigration and border security
Talarico: Supports increasing Border Patrol staffing, improving technology at ports of entry, targeting criminal organizations and expanding legal immigration pathways. He also supports immigration court reforms and pathways to legal status for certain undocumented immigrants.
Paxton: Supports completing the border wall, expanding immigration enforcement and deportations, and continuing policies aimed at preventing unauthorized border crossings. He has supported President Trump’s immigration agenda and previously challenged federal immigration policies as attorney general.
Both support strengthening border security, but differ substantially over enforcement priorities and pathways to legal immigration.
3. Education and parental rights
Talarico: Opposes private school voucher programs and supports increasing public education funding, teacher recruitment, early childhood education and universal prekindergarten. His campaign places particular emphasis on public schools.
Paxton: Emphasizes parental rights and conservative approaches to school policies. His campaign opposes certain school policies involving gender identity and transgender participation in girls’ athletics.
Education policy has been particularly relevant to Texas families, including those in growing suburban school districts.
While local and state governments make many school decisions, federal lawmakers influence education through legislation, appropriations and oversight.
4. Health care and abortion
Talarico: Supports a federal public health insurance option, expanded Affordable Care Act tax credits and measures to reduce prescription drug costs. He also supports federal legislation protecting abortion access.
Paxton: Calls for greater transparency and accountability in the health care and pharmaceutical industries. His campaign emphasizes reducing the influence of large pharmaceutical companies and supports restrictions on abortion. As attorney general, he has defended Texas abortion restrictions in court.
Their differences include the federal government’s role in health insurance and reproductive health policy.
5. Energy and federal regulations
Talarico: Supports continued oil and gas production alongside investments in wind, solar, geothermal and other energy technologies. His proposals include grid reliability improvements, disaster preparation and requiring large data centers to cover certain infrastructure costs.
Paxton: Supports expanded American energy production, reduced regulations affecting energy companies and policies intended to encourage domestic manufacturing and economic investment.
Both emphasize energy affordability and employment, although their approaches to regulation and investment differ.
Why Is This Senate Election Significant?
Republicans have held both of Texas’ U.S. Senate seats for decades. A Democratic victory would represent a major change in the state’s federal representation, while a Republican victory would continue the party’s control of the seat.
The Senate also has responsibilities extending beyond legislation. Senators vote on federal spending, judicial nominations, Cabinet appointments and other national matters.
For Katy-area residents, those decisions can affect issues such as taxes, federal disaster assistance, health care, transportation, immigration and education funding.
The candidates’ positions provide different approaches to those responsibilities, and voters must evaluate which policies align with their own priorities.
What Does the Poll Mean for Katy?
Although the University of Texas poll shows a three-point statewide difference, it does not establish which candidate has more support in Katy, Fulshear, Cinco Ranch or surrounding communities.
Local voting preferences may differ from statewide polling results. Without a scientifically conducted local survey, drawing conclusions about how Katy residents intend to vote would be speculative.
That raises an important question: Do Katy-area voters share the preferences measured statewide, or does the local electorate see this race differently?
Katy, We Want to Hear From You
- Who is Katy voting for in the 2026 U.S. Senate election?
- Will you support Democrat James Talarico, Republican Ken Paxton, Libertarian Ted Brown or another candidate?
- And what issue matters most to your decision: the cost of living, border security, education, health care, energy or something else?
The Katy News invites readers from Katy, Fulshear, Brookshire, Cinco Ranch and surrounding communities to share their perspectives.
The Katy News does not endorse a candidate in this article. Our purpose is to provide factual information about the race and encourage an informed community discussion.
Reader comments reflect individual opinions and should not be interpreted as a scientific poll of Katy-area voters.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Early voting in Texas runs from October 19 through October 30.
For official voting information, visit VoteTexas.gov.
Research and source information:
- University of Texas/Texas Politics Project — October 2026 Poll
- Quantus Insights — October 2026 Senate Poll
- James Talarico — Official Campaign Positions
- Ken Paxton — Official Campaign Positions
- The Texas Tribune — Senate Candidates on the Issues
