Bipartisan polling finds Abbott and Talarico holding leads, with 50+ swing voters poised to play a crucial role in November’s elections.
WASHINGTON – Today, AARP released new polling highlighting the outsized role Texas’s highly motivated older voters are poised to play in the state’s closely watched gubernatorial and Senate races in November — and the issues that will be top of mind for these pivotal voters at the ballot box, including Social Security, Medicare, and affordability.
“Texas’s upcoming elections will be among the most closely watched races in the country, and all eyes should be on the state’s older voters,” said Nancy LeaMond, AARP Executive Vice President and Chief Advocacy Officer. “Voters ages 50 and older are highly motivated to cast ballots, driven largely by financial concerns — from the cost of groceries, medicine and utilities to protecting Social Security. Their voices will be decisive on Election Day. Candidates who want to earn their support need to address these issues.”
Voters age 50 and older dominated both parties’ 2026 Texas primaries, accounting for nearly 55% of ballots cast in the Democratic primary and 78% of ballots cast in the Republican primary. AARP’s new polling suggests this high level of engagement is likely to continue: 84% of voters 50+ rated themselves a “10” on a 10-point motivation-to-vote scale, compared with 70% of voters under 50. Older swing voters make up almost 9% of the Texas electorate and roughly half of swing voters statewide, underscoring how influential this block will be for both tight races.
In the highly watched race for Senate, Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow 4-point (48%-44%) lead over Republican Ken Paxton, with 8% of voters undecided. Among voters age 50+, however, Paxton is up by 13 points (53%-40%). Talarico leads with 50+ swing voters by a significant margin (38%-17%).
In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott holds a narrow 3-point (49%-46%) edge over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Abbott’s lead is wider among 50+ voters, polling at 59% to Hinojosa’s 38%. Abbott also leads with 50+ swing voters by 31 points, and 50+ women by 15 points.
“This year’s Senate and gubernatorial races are both shaping up to be down to the wire, and older Texans are a crucial demographic for all candidates involved,” said Lisa A. Rodriguez, AARP Texas State Director. “Day-to-day realities like caring for an aging family member or grappling with rising grocery prices are driving their votes. They’re looking for leaders who will step in and advocate for policies that help them age with financial security, independence, and dignity.”
AARP’s polling found that affordability is the top issue for Texas voters 50+, followed by immigration and Social Security and Medicare.
Among voters age 50+:
- 59% say Social Security is or will be a major source of income for their household, and 91% are more likely to support a candidate who will make sure workers receive the Social Security benefits they earned.
- 73% say Medicare is an important voting issue, and 83% are more likely to support a candidate who would expand Medicare’s ability to negotiate prescription drug prices.
- 49% are either current or former caregivers, and 72% would be more likely to support a candidate who advocates to provide support for unpaid family caregivers helping their loved ones live independently in their homes.
AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct the survey of likely Texas voters. This is the fifth poll in AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series, following surveys of Michigan, Arizona, Ohio and Georgia. The firms interviewed 895 likely voters statewide. The survey was done between August 30-September 1, 2026. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on cell phone (40%) and landline (15%), as well as SMS-to-web (45%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Texas voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 895 statewide sample is ±3.3%.
View the full survey results at www.aarp.org/tx2026voterpoll and more information on our poll at www.aarp.org/TXpoll. Additional information about AARP’s 2026 battleground polling series is available at www.aarp.org/voterpolls2026.
