Survey Suggests Some Party Nominations Are Headed for a Runoff
HOUSTON, Feb. 11 — With a mix of familiar names and relative unknowns on the ballot, party nominations for several high-profile state races are likely to end in a runoff, according to the latest survey of likely voters from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. In some cases, as many as 40% of Texas voters are still undecided.
Yet some trends are clear. In the race for the Republican nomination for Texas attorney general, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy is leading with 33% of the vote, followed by state Sen. Mayes Middleton with 23%. State Sen. Joan Huffman had support from 13%, while Aaron Reitz drew 6%. One in four voters said they are unsure who they will support.
In the race for the Republican nomination for Texas comptroller, former gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines is leading with 33% of the vote, followed by longtime Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick with 21% and Kelly Hancock, who was appointed by Gov. Greg Abbott as interim comptroller last year, with 13%. Twenty-nine percent of likely voters are unsure.
In the Democratic primary for governor, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa is leading with 36% of the vote, while attorney Chris Bell and farmer Bobby Cole each have 6%. Six other candidates are drawing support of 5% or less, while notably one-third (32%) of voters in that race are unsure.
Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the number of candidates who haven’t previously run for statewide office, along with the lengthy list of contenders for some offices, is making it difficult for leading candidates in some races to clear the 50% bar to avoid a runoff.
“Many of the nominations are competitive, and even as early voting is set to begin next week, voters are still learning about many of the candidates,” she said. “When we asked whether voters have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the people who are running, sometimes the most common answer was that they don’t know enough about the candidate to answer.”
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said researchers found that, at least for now, Republican candidates are solidly favored at the top of the ticket in the November election.
“Abbott is outpacing Hinojosa by seven points, 49% to 42%, while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has a five-point advantage over state Rep. Vikki Goodwin, 46% to 41%,” he said.
Relatively few voters are undecided in those matchups, at 6% for the gubernatorial race and 9% in the lieutenant governor’s race.
“There’s certainly time for movement between the primary and November, but today the races are Abbott’s and Patrick’s to lose,” Jones said.
The primary election is March 3, and early voting begins Feb. 17. Runoff elections will be held on May 26.
The researchers’ other findings include:
Incumbent Sid Miller is leading the Republican nomination for agriculture commissioner with 49%, while challenger Nate Sheets drew 18% and 34% of likely voters are unsure.
Incumbent Jim Wright is leading the Republican nomination for railroad commission with 21%, while challenger James “Jim” Matlock has 20%. Three other challengers drew 8% or less, while 41% of likely voters are unsure.
State Sen. Nathan Johnson is leading the Democratic nomination for attorney general with 25%, followed by Joe Jaworski with 22% and Tony Box with 13%. Meanwhile, 40% of likely voters are unsure.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The survey of 1,502 likely November 2026 voters in Texas was conducted between Jan. 20-31 in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of +/- 2.53% overall and of +/- 4.18% for both the March Republican and Democratic primary elections.
A previous report looked at the race for U.S. Senate; forthcoming survey reports will focus on countywide and congressional primary contests in Harris County.
