2026 Election Polls: Latest Texas, Senate and Governor Updates
By The Katy News | October 20, 2026
KATY, TEXAS — Early voting is underway across Texas, and the first official turnout numbers are beginning to show how many residents are participating in one of the state’s most closely watched midterm elections.
With the November 3 election approaching, new polling shows competitive contests for the U.S. Senate, governor and several other statewide offices.
In Greater Katy, voters are already casting ballots at locations across Harris and Fort Bend counties. The latest figures offer an early look at participation, although the actual votes received by individual candidates will remain confidential until Election Day.
Texas U.S. Senate: What the Latest Polls Show
A University of Houston Hobby School survey released October 19 found Democrat James Talarico receiving 48% support among likely voters, compared with 46% for Republican Ken Paxton.
Libertarian Ted Brown received 3%, while another 3% remained undecided.
The poll surveyed 2,000 likely Texas voters from October 10–14 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.
An earlier Marist Poll, conducted October 8–11, found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters.
Both surveys measured a two-point difference, meaning the race remains statistically close.
Sources: University of Houston Texas Votes 2026 and Marist Poll.
Texas Governor and Other Statewide Races
The October 19 University of Houston survey also examined several statewide contests.
| Election | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate |
|---|---|---|
| Governor | Gina Hinojosa 46% | Greg Abbott 49% |
| Lieutenant Governor | Vikki Goodwin 42% | Dan Patrick 47% |
| Attorney General | Nathan Johnson 42% | Mayes Middleton 47% |
| Railroad Commissioner | Jon Rosenthal 43% | Bo French 45% |
| Comptroller | Sarah Eckhardt 40% | Don Huffines 47% |
These figures represent surveyed voter preferences, not actual election results. Third-party candidates and undecided voters are not displayed in the table.
With several contests showing relatively narrow differences, participation across large counties and smaller communities will be an important part of the final outcome.
Early Voting Results: Harris County Reports 129,453 Voters and Mail Ballots Received
According to the Harris County Clerk’s unofficial report for October 19, the first day of early voting produced the following figures:
- 104,659 early in-person voter check-ins.
- 24,794 mail ballots received.
- 129,453 combined early-voting check-ins and mail ballots received.
These numbers remain unofficial until election administrators complete the required verification and reconciliation procedures. Mail ballots received are not necessarily all accepted for counting.
Source: Harris County Clerk’s Official Early Voting Report
Fort Bend County: More Than 31,000 Voters Cast Early Ballots in Person
Fort Bend County’s election office reported 31,793 in-person early-voting check-ins on October 19.
The report was generated October 20 at 10:52 a.m. and provides a location-by-location breakdown.
Across the county, several voting centers in and around Katy, Fulshear and Richmond recorded substantial first-day participation.
Greater Katy Voting Locations — First-Day Turnout
| Early-voting location | Voter check-ins |
|---|---|
| Cinco Ranch Branch Library | 2,367 |
| Katy Branch Harris County Public Library | 1,827 |
| Tompkins High School | 1,283 |
| Fulshear Branch Library | 1,202 |
| Firethorne Clubhouse | 1,038 |
| Seven Lakes High School | 640 |
The Katy Branch figure comes from Harris County. The other five locations listed above are in Fort Bend County’s report.
The figures represent votes cast at those locations, not necessarily votes from residents living immediately around them.
Source: Fort Bend County Election Statistics
How Are Harris County Voters Responding in the Polls?
A separate University of Houston survey released October 13 examined likely voters specifically in Harris County.
That study measured:
U.S. Senate
- James Talarico: 58%
- Ken Paxton: 36%
Texas Governor
- Gina Hinojosa: 56%
- Greg Abbott: 40%
These results differ from the statewide survey because they measure Harris County likely voters rather than voters across Texas.
The findings cannot be used to determine how Katy residents specifically are voting, nor can they establish who has received the most early ballots.
Source: University of Houston Harris County Elections 2026 Study
Nationwide: Other Major Senate and Governor Races
Texas is not the only state reporting closely watched polling figures before the November election.
Recent original polling provides the following results.
U.S. Senate
| State | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown 48% | Jon Husted 44% |
| Iowa | Josh Turek 48% | Ashley Hinson 45% |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper 52% | Michael Whatley 39% |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola 47% | Dan Sullivan 44% |
Alaska’s figures reflect first-choice preferences in a ranked-choice voting survey. In that survey’s simulated final round, Peltola received 51% and Sullivan 49%.
Governor
| State | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Amy Acton 50% | Vivek Ramaswamy 43% |
| Iowa | Rob Sand 52% | Zach Lahn 45% |
These figures come from separate surveys conducted on different dates and are not directly comparable as a single national measure of support.
Original polling sources: Marist Ohio, Marist Iowa, Elon University North Carolina and Data for Progress Alaska.
Does High Early-Voting Turnout Tell Us Which Party Is Winning?
Not necessarily.
Early-voting reports primarily show how many people have checked in at voting locations or returned ballots by mail.
They do not show which candidates those voters selected.
Several factors also affect comparisons between counties, including the number of registered voters, available voting centers and the timing of mail ballot returns.
A county reporting more ballots than another does not automatically indicate stronger support for either political party.
The official candidate-by-candidate early-voting results will not become public before polls close on Election Day.
Texas Has More Than 19 Million Registered Voters
The Texas Secretary of State announced October 16 that the state has 19,041,684 registered voters, a record total.
That represents an increase of approximately 2.2% from the November 2024 general election.
However, voter registration does not guarantee participation. Actual turnout will be determined by the number of ballots cast and accepted during early voting and on Election Day.
Source: Texas Secretary of State
Important Dates for Texas Voters
- October 19: Early voting began.
- October 23: Deadline for election offices to receive applications for ballots by mail.
- October 30: Final day of early in-person voting.
- November 3: General Election Day.
Voters can find official voting information at VoteTexas.gov.
Residents of Katy should verify which county they are registered in, because the Katy area extends across Harris, Fort Bend and Waller counties.
What Happens Next?
As additional early-voting reports become available, election officials will continue updating the public on participation.
Those numbers will provide a clearer picture of how many Texans are voting before November 3, but they will not establish the outcome of any particular race.
For residents of Katy and surrounding communities, the coming days will offer more information about participation across local polling locations.
Who Is Receiving the Most Votes?
One of the biggest questions voters are asking is whether James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa or other candidates are receiving the most early votes.
The answer is that nobody outside the authorized election process knows the actual candidate-by-candidate totals yet.
Under Texas election law, early-voting results cannot legally be released to the public until polls close on November 3, generally at 7 p.m. Central Time.
Election officials can report how many people have voted, but not how those individuals voted.
This distinction is important because polling numbers and early-voting turnout are not the same as election results. Even when a candidate appears ahead in public opinion surveys, those figures do not confirm how many actual ballots that candidate has received.
Once the polls close on Election Night, counties will begin releasing their early-voting results, followed by Election Day vote totals as counting continues.
The Katy News will continue following the official numbers for Harris, Fort Bend and Waller counties, along with the major statewide races, as verified information becomes available.
We want to hear from Katy voters: What issues matter most to you in this election — property taxes, public education, housing costs, public safety, infrastructure or something else?
Your perspective is part of the community conversation.
