The shape of the AFC East is finally changing. The New England Patriots have owned the division for so many years, it’s almost hard to imagine any other outcome than a Pats division title.
But Tom is gone …
… and the Patriots are about to enter a rebuild that could put them in the middle of the pack instead of at the top. The Buffalo Bills are a defensive beast right now and have a young QB who’s getting better each year and is finally getting some offensive pieces put in place around him. The Jets are still the Jets, but they have a ton of talent. They just need to figure out how to get out of the way of themselves. And Miami has a brand new franchise QB and had a handful of draft picks to snatch up all sorts of new talent.
So, that’s the state of the union … but how will the season pan out?
Let’s have a look at the numbers lined out for AFC East season win totals to see if we can’t figure it out.
New England Patriots
The Pats went 12-4 last season. Through the first half of the regular-season, they looked unstoppable. So unstoppable that headlines about a perfect season were all over the net. Then the offense started to show a Gronk-sized hole. Still, 12 wins and one of the badest-ass defenses we’ve ever seen in New England.
Now, the draft is over and sorry Pats fans, but top brass did a horrific job. So, what do the boys in Vegas think about the upcoming New England Patriots season? They’ve set the line at 9 wins. Ok, nine wins is by no means a bad season. There are plenty of teams in the NFL would kill for a 9-7 year. But for Pats fans, it’s a huge step back.
On top of this, the Pats have a challenging, .537schedule. This is the first time in the Bill Belichick era that the Pats have the toughest schedule in the NFL. So, nine wins is looking like the Patriots’ ceiling in 2020.
The Buffalo Bills
The Bills are also set with a 9-win line. That said, I think the OVER might be a good spot here. Buffalo won 10 last year and I think they can do it again. Their QB is maturing and they are developing a defensive continuity that makes them a legitimately tough foe, especially in Buffalo. That said, the Bills don’t have a cakewalk season ahead. They are tied for the 5th most difficult strength of schedule with the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions.
The Miami Dolphins
The Fins picked up Tua, and it’s funny because they literally tanked for Tua for 2/3rds of the season, and then Tua went down with an injury and the Fins didn’t need to tank any longer. They went into the 2020 NFL draft with more picks than any other team, and actually did a great job. That said, they still have a long way to go. They will be better than last year, but unfortunately for Miami, the SOS trend continues.
The Dolphins have the 3rd most difficult schedule in the NFL. So, don’t be surprised if a much-improved Fins teams still loses, and loses, and loses.
The New York Jets
The Jets have had it worst of all. I say this because they had extremely high hopes at the beginning of last season and it by no means came to fruition. So, now the Jets are lined out with a season win total of 7. And to keep it rolling along, the Jets have the No. 2 most difficult schedule in the league.
The good news is the Jets finally might get some pocket protection. Hopefully, we’ll get to see Darnold sling the rock a little more and a little better with Mekhi Becton protecting him. And what about Le’Veon Bell? There was so much chatter about how the Jets would be able to finally move the ball on the ground … Well, that didn’t happen.
But Bell comes back in 2020 with the rust shaken off, so maybe we’ll see more productivity. Still, the Jets have struggled, and now they have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL. I expect more struggles. That said, 7 wins sounds about right. Can the Jet’s possibly go OVER and reach .500 in 2020?