The 2020 presidential election is expected to have a record voter turnout. There is no certainty about what the outcomes will be. Long-time Republican state Texas is shaping up to be a battleground and who might win is anyone’s guess.
Keep reading to discover why the people of Texas might vote a different way and why there is a lot of uncertainty about the state.
Republican Congressmen in Texas
Within the space of just a few weeks, four Republican congressmen have all decided to call it quits and not run for re-election in 2020. Some commentators have termed this as a ‘Texodus’.
Rep. Pete Olson of Texas’ 22nd district in the Houston suburbs, Rep. Will Hurd of the 23rd district along the border, and Rep. Kenny Marchant of the 24th district in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, are all retiring.
These 3 men all represent majority-nonwhite suburban districts that have recently been trending towards Democrats. These 3 retirements will make many seats more competitive, but there are also other reasons why the Republicans might lose Texas.
Texas is currently experiencing favorable Democratic trends, which are increased urbanization and big demographic shifts.
Demographic Shifts and Increased Urbanization
The demographic shift in Texas will see Hispanics becoming the largest group in the state of Texas by 2022.
“Texas will gain nearly nine times as many Hispanic residents than white residents in the upcoming years. And currently, the Hispanic population is concentrated in the state’s largest counties. Notably Hispanic voters in Texas are registering and voting more, so the presidential election could be significantly shaped by the demographic shift,” says Julián Riano from MONEDEROsmart.
Previously, the Democrats haven’t held a majority of votes within the Hispanic community. As Pew Research Center found that 65% of Hispanics voted for Rep. Beto O’Rourke and 35% voted for Sen. Ted Cruz in their 2018 race. This is compared to 53% of Hispanic voters who backed Democrat Lupe Valdez over Gov. Greg Abbott who received 42% of the Latino vote.
Regardless, the Republican’s are still trying to secure the Hispanic voters with events such as these Hispanic Republican meetings, because they know that Latino voters might be swayed by the Democrats.
Another issue facing Republican Texas is the increased urbanization. Texas cities are getting bigger and as a result their economies are booming. This in turn is attracting more college-educated voters into areas such as Dallas, Houston, and Austin.
These college-educated voters are another threat to Republican Texas, because they don’t like Donald Trump.
Demographic shift and increased urbanization, alongside the 3 congressmen who have retired, really put pressure on both Republicans and Democrats in the state of Texas as the 2020 presidential election is round the corner.
Which way this state will vote is anybody’s guess, but one thing is certain, both sides have their work cut out for them. Keep up-to-date with the latest General Election polls as they unfold